When the Favorites Fell: Unpacking the Upsets and Surprises of the 2018 European Fencing Championship
Pre-tournament forecasting is a staple of championship coverage, but the 2018 European Fencing Championship delivered a series of results that confounded analysts, statisticians, and seasoned observers alike. From heavily favored medalists who exited early to relative unknowns who reached the podium, the competition demonstrated why fencing remains one of the most resistant sports to reliable prediction. This analysis examines what went wrong with the forecasts — and what those failures reveal a